Bradley Model Performance Using a Very Simplistic Approach

 
 
One method of employing the Bradley Model, especially appealing to some, is to apply it using the annual low and high (or the major low and high points) of the Bradley Siderograph Indicator each year as Buy and Sell signals, respectively.  Sometimes there isn't a low for the year since, for example, the Bradley Siderograph may be trending lower into the following year (this occurred at the end of 2002 and the beginning of 2003) ... same goes for occasional Bradley Siderograph uptrends continuing into the succeeding year.  This method using Bradley's Siderograph is not suited for everyone.  The approach may be boring to some, particularly traders.  However; check the results below using this simple approach vs. the major stock averages, ETFs and several mutual funds since we began tracking Bradley using this method live in early 1998.

The performance numbers below includes dividends except on the market averages, i.e., Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, NYSE Stock Composite, NASDAQ Composite, Value Line Geometric and Arithmetic, and Dow Jones Total Stock Market.  It also includes assumed earned interest while out of the market at the average of the Fidelity Cash Reserves (a large U.S. money market fund) 7-day compound rates on sell and buy dates.  Transaction costs and taxes are not included.  This approach has an impressive track record perhaps worthy of consideration.  It is doubtful its success can be attributed only to a string of coincidences ... if so, it's quite a string.

 
The last signal, October 19, 2016, was a Buy signal by the method described above.

PLEASE NOTE: There is a substantial time delay in updating signal performance on this webpage in deference to those who purchase the Bradley Model software and data.

 
The following performance summary of was compiled by the creator of a Bradley Siderograph Indicator calculating software.  These results were derived from real-time monitoring and based on the computed Bradley Siderograph Indicator from our software, which is for sale.  If you find these results interesting and want to know more, the complete details of our Bradley software is at http://aunegl.com where it may also be purchased.

If you are viewing this summary accessed from other sources, please click on the above link which will take you to our home page that leads to further details.  Although this summary is believed to be accurate, errors can occur and any are unintentional; therefore, proceed accordingly.

 
 

           ANNUALIZED COMPOUND GROWTH PERCENTAGE RATES:
                             -------At Last SELL Signal--------
                                                 L                                Per-
                             % Using  % Using    o              $10,000 Grew to   cent
                             Bradley   Buy    W  s              at Last Buy/Sell   of
   1/22/1998 to 10/19/2016      for     &     i  s   Avg.  Avg.  ----Signal-----  time
                              Annual   Hold   n  e   Win  Loss   Using   As Per    at
   BENCHMARK                   Trade  (B&H)   s  s    %     %   Bradley  (B&H)    Risk
   --------------------------  -----  -----  -- --  ----- -----  ------ ------  ------  

   Dow Jones Industrials        8.48   4.72  20  1   7.57  9.23  $45021 $22936   50.61
   DIA                          9.77   7.08  19  2   9.04  3.08   56083  35022   50.61
   S&P 500 Index                9.87   4.39  18  3  10.23  5.11   57020  21937   50.61
   SPY                         11.18   6.39  19  2  10.69  5.42   70973  31303   50.61
   RSP S&P Rydex Equal Weight
      since 5/2/2003:          11.62  10.89  15  1   9.87  2.47   42713  38891   49.16
   VTI since 10/01/2001        10.25   7.78  16  1   9.21  4.36   42369  30269   48.28
   New York Stock Composite     9.57   3.82  19  2   8.93  4.21   54169  19691   50.61
   Vanguard Total Stock Market 11.45   6.93  19  2  11.10  6.27   74168  34475   50.61
   NASDAQ Composite Index      14.72   6.36  18  3  17.33 11.13  126734  32570   50.61
   QQQ since 8/10/1999:        12.46   5.01  16  3  16.46 12.55   73196  24098   49.75
   Rydex bull/bear combinations:
      Nova & Inverse SP500:    15.52   N.M.* 27 14  15.07  6.87  144242   N.M.* 100.00
      SP500 2x & Inverse SP500
        2x since 7/19/2000:    11.11   N.M.* 22 14  19.55 13.35   53952   N.M.* 100.00
   IWB iShares Russell 1000
        since 1/26/2001         8.85   5.15  16  2   8.77  6.08   37186  21698   48.39
   IWM iShares Russell 2000
        since 1/26/2001:       12.86   6.95  16  2  12.11  1.41   65067  28721   48.39
   Value Line:
      Geometric Index           9.54   0.35  18  3   9.78  4.41   53919  10661   50.61
      Arithmetic Index         14.31   9.81  20  1  12.79  4.49  118489  56948   50.61
   Dow Jones Total Stock Mkt.# 11.31   4.84  19  2  11.00  6.94   72514  23838   50.61
   Fidelity Investments:
      Growth Discovery Fund**  14.51   7.90  20  2  13.52  5.01  122560  41193   50.59
      Growth Companies Fund    15.83   8.46  18  3  17.29  6.26  151309  45961   50.61
      Stock Selector           11.71   5.08  19  2  11.37  6.63   77524  25348   50.61
      Dividend Growth          11.99   6.17  18  3  12.32  3.94   81218  30230   50.61
      Trend Fund               13.61   6.23  19  2  13.38  6.19  105861  31305   50.61
      Value Fund               12.23   7.33  19  2  11.91  7.29   84470  39998   50.61
      OTC Fund since 
        10/21/1999:            14.09   5.92  16  3  16.77 10.40   90974  27396   49.16
   Wells Fargo Advantage:
      Growth A Fund +          15.93   8.17  18  3  18.63  9.43  153874  42631   50.61
      Opportunity A Fund +     13.83   6.07  19  2  12.80  1.19  109735  30007   50.61
      Large Cap. Growth A +    12.60   5.48  18  3  14.44  8.86   89731  26734   50.61

 
*N.M. = "Not Meaningful" since the portfolio involves 2 non-concurrent investments
with opposing objectives, therefore at risk 100% of the time.
** Name changed from Fidelity Contra II Fund to Fidelity Growth Discovery Fund on 
8/29/2003.
# Formerly Dow Wilshire 5000 Index.
+ Formerly Strong Investments' funds.
 
 

 
Last updated 01/16/2017 2017 copyright aunegl.com - Bradley Model Performance